The International Monetary Fund has once again downgraded its outlook for Russia’s economy, forecasting GDP growth of just 0.6% in 2025. The new estimate marks a reduction from the IMF’s July projection of 0.9% and highlights one of the sharpest slowdowns among major economies.
The IMF expects Russia’s growth to remain subdued, projecting 1% GDP expansion in 2026 and 1.1% in 2030, a sharp decline from the 4.3% growth recorded in 2024 driven by wartime spending. In contrast, Russian government forecasts remain more optimistic, with the Economic Development Ministry predicting growth of 1% this year and up to 2.8% later in the decade.
Inflation remains a major concern, with the IMF projecting it to reach 9% in 2025 — more than double the global average — before easing to 5.2% in 2026. The Russian Central Bank reported an inflation rate of 8.2% in early September.
Globally, the IMF has slightly raised its 2025 growth outlook to 3.2%, reflecting modest optimism despite ongoing geopolitical and inflationary pressures.