The US-brokered ceasefire finds Hamas in a precarious position. The Islamic militant group has been militarily decimated by Israel’s offensive and is now giving up its last major bargaining chip—the remaining hostages. Yet, as an organization and a political force, Hamas remains intact, posing a long-term challenge to the stability President Donald Trump seeks.
Throughout the war, Israel’s stated goal has been the destruction of Hamas. While its military capabilities have been severely degraded, the group’s leadership structure has survived, and it could eventually rebuild if the current ceasefire extends into a long period of calm. This reality is at the heart of the security dilemma facing the region.
By agreeing to release the hostages, Hamas is making a significant concession under duress. Prime Minister Netanyahu asserts that the group only came to the table because it felt the “sword on its neck.” This suggests the deal is a tactical retreat for Hamas, not a strategic surrender. The group has not agreed to disarm, a key Israeli demand.
This sets the stage for a tense future. Former US national security adviser H.R. McMaster predicted that the chances of Hamas disarming are near zero, implying that another round of conflict is likely. Israel has made it clear that its campaign to demilitarize the group will resume after the hostage situation is resolved.
As Trump and other world leaders discuss Gaza’s future, they face the difficult question of how to deal with Hamas. Integrating it into a political solution is unacceptable to Israel and the US, but excluding it entirely risks creating a spoiler that could undermine any peace agreement. The group, though weakened, remains a central and unresolved part of the Gaza puzzle.