A new analysis by tourism intelligence platform DataGreat suggests a potential shift in travel patterns across Europe and the eastern Mediterranean if Russian outbound tourism faces another shock. This study, conducted using DataGreat’s Crisis Impact Simulator and the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset, explores the impact of further disruptions in Russian tourism. This follows the initial shock in February 2022, when the invasion of Ukraine led to sanctions and travel restrictions, causing a significant redirection of Russian tourists away from European Union destinations. Instead, countries like Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt saw an increase in Russian visitors, while EU destinations experienced a decline of over 70% in Russian tourism post-2022.
The new scenario analysis considers the effects of a second wave of disruption, possibly caused by tighter sanctions, further currency depreciation, or additional travel route closures. The simulator examines the potential for Russian outbound tourism to decrease by 20% to 35% to certain destinations over one year. It categorizes exposure into three areas: EU destinations with residual Russian tourism, Mediterranean locations reliant on packaged holidays and chartered flights, and absorber markets like Türkiye, where the focus shifts to whether alternative markets can compensate for the loss of Russian tourists.
The analysis also highlights the vulnerability of certain tourism operators, such as charter-dependent package providers, coastal resorts reliant on Russian tourists during off-peak times, and destination management companies focused on Russian-language groups. The simulator uses inbound share data to calculate vulnerability and employs an AI layer to contextualize the findings. Key mitigation strategies include diversifying source markets to include Gulf Cooperation Council countries and India, repositioning products for European markets, and implementing currency hedging strategies for businesses with significant ruble exposure.
DataGreat’s findings complement its Risk Radar module, which weekly assesses 42 destinations across six tourism risk categories, including market concentration. Together, these tools provide a comprehensive picture of potential tourism shocks and their specific impacts. DataGreat plans to release destination-specific insights from the simulator up to 2026, while credentialed media can request detailed simulator outputs for any of the destinations covered in the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset.
DataGreat, operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş. and based in Edirne, Türkiye, is a comprehensive tourism intelligence platform. It offers a range of tools, including a Persona Builder, Risk Radar, Campaign Brief Generator, and Crisis Impact Simulator, providing detailed insights across 42 countries and 26,880 verified data points.
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