In a significant diplomatic development, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin exchanged congratulatory messages ahead of Putin’s upcoming visit to Beijing. The visit comes just days after former U.S. President Donald Trump concluded a summit in China. Xi highlighted the ongoing strengthening of China-Russia relations, coinciding with the 30th anniversary of their strategic partnership. Putin is scheduled to arrive in China on Tuesday evening, with a meeting with Xi planned for Wednesday morning, according to Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov. The leaders are expected to discuss various aspects of their bilateral relationship, including the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.
The close timing of the visits by leaders of both the U.S. and Russia has drawn global attention, with analysts noting the rarity of such back-to-back meetings in the post-Cold War era. The deepening relationship between China and Russia has raised concerns in Western nations, particularly since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Western diplomats and analysts argue that China’s economic and diplomatic backing has bolstered Russia amid the ongoing conflict. Since 2022, bilateral trade between China and Russia has reached unprecedented levels, with China purchasing over a quarter of Russia’s exports, including substantial amounts of crude oil, providing Moscow with significant revenue for the war effort.
China’s substantial investment in Russian fossil fuels, amounting to more than $367 billion since the start of the war, has secured the country’s energy needs, especially vital due to disruptions in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz amid the Middle East crisis. In contrast, the recent talks between Trump and Xi seemingly sidestepped the Ukraine conflict and Sino-Russian ties, focusing instead on trade, Taiwan, and Middle Eastern tensions. Trump reported that China shared his view on the necessity of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Xi, however, emphasized the potential repercussions of mishandling the Taiwan issue, and Trump left Beijing undecided about a major U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, a move that Beijing strongly opposes.
Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, suggested that Taiwan might be an underlying theme in the upcoming Xi-Putin meeting. Webster speculated that China could be looking to secure more fossil fuel agreements with Russia to bolster its energy security in the event of a conflict over Taiwan. Enhancing Russian oil pipeline capacity to China, such as through the Power of Siberia 2 project, would significantly bolster Beijing’s energy security in a potential Taiwan crisis. Russia has been eager for China to advance the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which would expand the existing network between the two nations by 50 billion cubic meters of capacity.